Poverty, Social backwardness, Urban territory, Public policy, Economic capacity index.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33110/rnee.v20i1.367Keywords:
Nominal GDP, Ecuador, Economic Growth, Informal Economy, Fiscal SustainabilityAbstract
This study analyzes the trajectory of Ecuador’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2020 and 2024, in the context of post-pandemic recovery, international oil price volatility, and domestic structural tensions. Using a quantitative and comparative approach, strategic sectors—such as commerce, agriculture, and non-traditional exports—are identified as the main drivers of economic growth.The results reveal a gradual deceleration in real GDP: after growth of 3.5% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023, a moderate expansion of 3.0% is projected for 2024. This performance is explained by the contraction of the oil sector (–3%) and the marginal growth of the non-oil sector (0.8%), the latter representing 87% of nominal GDP. Structural challenges persist that limit growth potential: high labor informality (58%), a sustained fiscal deficit (–3.2%), and a level of public debt equivalent to 55.04% of nominal GDP. In response, the study proposes a set of measures aimed at strengthening fiscal sustainability through improved public spending efficiency, broadening the tax base, and reducing reliance on oil revenues. Likewise, it recommends promoting inclusive growth through structural reforms focused on labor formalization, productive diversification, and equitable access to basic services.Although the reported variations correspond to real GDP, the central focus of the study is on the evolution of nominal GDP.
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